South Africa’s Energy Transition by Andrew Lawrence

Author:Andrew Lawrence
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9783030189037
Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Conclusion

Given the commonalities among the major types of non-renewable alternatives to coal—their immense capital expenditure requirements and massive cost overruns; their uncertain technologies and risks; their potential for significant environmental damage lasting generations; the lack of transparency surrounding their acquisition, and related risks of accelerating corruption and capital flight; and their dubious (but precisely because they are so capital-intensive, likely very limited) employment creation potential—it may seem surprising that their fates should have been so different up to the present. Yet the difference in outcomes is easily explicable with reference to size of the anticipated corporate profits, and the extent to which the corporate interests are embedded within existing state structures. At one extreme, geothermal presents comparatively minor, uncertain profits with little embeddedness at present; the Russian (or any other) nuclear deal presented potentially sizeable profits, but little embeddedness (except within the small local nuclear lobby and ex-President Zuma’s immediate circle); whereas fracking and offshore gas exploration combine potentially larger profits with higher levels of government embeddedness. In terms of total cost, employment outcomes, pollution, health hazards, and resource curse effects, however, the grounds for opposing each of these “alternatives” is fundamentally the same as for opposing the coal-based status quo.

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